I'll be posting live weather updates during the race on my Twitter account @Race4caster.
By Doug Schneider The occasional showers that have been around Le Mans for the past several days will be coming to an end on Saturday as the slow-moving low pressure system finally exits and high pressure begins to build in from the west. I can't rule out a few sprinkles on Saturday, but any precipitation is probably going to be so light that it won't be measurable (less than 0.01 inches or 0.25 mm). The most likely time for a sprinkle looks to be in the afternoon, so it is possible that it could affect the first few hours of the race. Again, I think it will be so light that it might not have much impact. There will be a bit of a breeze on Saturday, from the west at 10 to 15 mph (15-25 km/h). After sunset, which is at 10 pm, the race will have dry conditions overnight with partly cloudy skies. Sunday will have a mix of sun and clouds through the day, with high temperatures near 70 F (21 C).
I'll be posting live weather updates during the race on my Twitter account @Race4caster. By Doug Schneider Checking the radar this morning (or early this afternoon in France), rain showers are moving across the Le Mans area. The bulk of the rain today will be in the early afternoon, so the qualifying this evening will likely be dry.
The slow-moving low pressure trough that has brought clouds and rain the past few days will continue to linger across northern France through Friday. This will keep a good chance of showers in the forecast, particularly in the afternoon. A thunderstorm can't be entirely ruled out either. Rain amounts around a tenth of an inch are likely, but if a heavier shower or storm moves over the track, a quarter inch of rain may be possible. By Friday night, the trough should be exiting the area to the east, and high pressure will start to build in from the west. A few light showers may be around Le Mans Saturday morning, but I'm still expecting that they will be gone by the time the race starts at 3 pm local time (9 am EDT). With high pressure continuing to build over France, I expect that the race will remain dry for all 24 hours of racing. By Doug Schneider I haven't had to change much from my original forecast, as the models have been consistent with the weather pattern across Northern Europe. With the models also being in good agreement with each other, my confidence in this forecast is high.
A low pressure system will be sitting over England Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring periods of showers to Le Mans, which may affect the practice and qualifying sessions on both days. The low pressure will start to push east into the North Sea on Friday, but a trough trailing behind it will still be located over Northern France, so periods of showers will continue. Temperatures will be cool under the low pressure system, with highs only in the mid 60s F (upper teens C). The total amount of rain expected Wednesday through Friday is between a quarter to half an inch (6 to 13 mm). Let me clarify that I don't expect this rain to be a constant, all day rain. I expect that it will be more on/off showers, most of which will be light. There's a chance of some showers lingering into Saturday morning, but by the afternoon, the rain should be gone and the sun should start to peek through. With high pressure building over the region, I expect that the entire race will be dry from start to finish. Sunday looks like a pretty nice day, with a mix of clouds and sun and a high temperature near 70 F (21 C). We don't have radar available for France as we normally do, but I recommend Weather Underground if you want to check the radar or current observations. By Doug Schneider This week is going to be a wet one across northern France, but the good news is that the majority of the rain is expected to be gone in time for the race.
A low pressure system will be sitting over England and the North Sea for much of the week, and disturbances in the midlevels of the atmosphere will move around this low and across northern France. Since the pattern will be slow to change, the chance of rain will remain high for several days. While showers will be possible at any time of the day on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, the afternoons appear to be the favored times for the majority of showers. The amount of rain through this period could be between 1 and 2 inches (or 25 to 50 mm). As we get into Friday night and Saturday morning, the low pressure trough will begin to move east, taking most of the rain with it. I am putting a low chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday due to the uncertainty about how fast the trough will exit, and if there is rain into Saturday, it is more likely to be early in the day. I am confident that the rain will be completely gone by Saturday night, as high pressure will begin to build over France from the west. This will give a nice day on Sunday for the finish of the race. Right now, I'd put the chances of a dry race from start to finish at 80%. Follow our social media feeds on the right for the latest forecast updates through the week. By Doug Schneider Based on the latest information, there could be some showers and thunderstorms around Texas Motor Speedway this afternoon and this evening. The chance of one of the storms hitting the track is still low, around 20%, but it can't be ruled out that the race may be interrupted by storms. They are not expected to be strong or severe, but any lightning can always present a danger. Afternoon highs will be around 90 degrees, with temperatures during the race in the lower to mid 80s.
For Trans Am at New Jersey Motorsports Park, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon. There is still some uncertainty about the timing, and storms are a possibility at any time in the afternoon, but I think the most likely period for storms will be between 4 pm and 8 pm. This could affect the practice sessions and second-chance qualifying that are scheduled in that period. As a cold front moves through the area on Sunday, winds will pick up to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts around 30 mph at times. By Doug Schneider There hasn't been much change to the weather outlooks for the Firestone 600 and the Weekend of Thunder at NJMP since my last forecast.
No rain is expected at Texas Motor Speedway Friday or Saturday, and temperatures during the race Saturday evening will be in the 80s. For Trans Am Weekend of Thunder at NJMP, the weather looks good for most of the event, but there is still a small chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of the storms could produce some gusty winds, along with lightning. But I still expect that most of this activity will come in the evening, and not affect the action on the track. A cold front will move through on Sunday, but it will be late enough in the day that temperatures will still warm into the 80s. It will be breezy with the front moving through, with winds shifting to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. By Doug Schneider Trans Am heads to New Jersey Motorsports Park this weekend for the Weekend of Thunder. Will the event have weather that matches its name?
Fortunately, I think the answer to that question is most likely to be "no", but with caveats. There will be a low pressure system that will be tracking southeast across Ontario and New England over the weekend. Friday looks nice as there will be a slight high pressure ridge that will provide plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Clouds will increase on Saturday as the system approaches. The big question is when showers and storms associated with the cold front will move through. Right now, the most likely scenario is that there are some scattered showers and storms around late Saturday afternoon, with the best rain chances coming after dark Saturday evening. I have a 30% chance of rain during the day on Saturday, but I'd put the chances of rain on Saturday night closer to 60%. Of course, this timing is subject to change as we get closer to the weekend, so stay tuned for updates. The cold front is expected to move through early Sunday morning, so most of the day should be very nice, with decreasing clouds and temperatures near 80 degrees. It will be a bit breezy behind the front, with a northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph, and gusts to around 20 mph at times. By Doug Schneider The Firestone 600 will have fairly typical weather for North Texas this time of year, which means it will be dry, hot, and humid. A large high pressure ridge will be covering the Southeast later this week. A southerly flow over Texas will bring some moisture into the area that will make it feel humid, but aloft, the atmosphere will be too stable to support thunderstorm development. Highs will be in the lower 90s each day, with a southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph.
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