By Doug Schneider If you liked the weather at Sebring on Thursday and Friday, you'll like Saturday too. Although there were some showers in central Florida yesterday afternoon, they stayed near the coast and didn't move inland. I don't see any indication that Saturday will be much different, so I think the chance of rain is too small to warrant any mention in the forecast. The day may start with some fog around the track, but it will be gone by the start of the race. Plenty of sunshine will bring temperatures up to near 90 in the afternoon, with a few small cumulus clouds popping up. Enjoy the race.
By Doug Schneider A few small changes were made to the forecast today, but overall, the weather continues to look good for the 12 Hours of Sebring. The best chance of seeing rain showers through the event will be today as scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon. The main time frame for showers will be from 2 pm to 7 pm. Any showers around the area should be light, producing less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Here's a model depiction of what the radar could look like around 5 pm (Sebring is located approximately at the red dot): Friday continues to look dry, and I've raised temperatures based on the high temperatures that have been observed over the past few days - in the upper 80s.
I still think that the race on Saturday is most likely to stay dry. However, I did add a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. The reason for this is that the sea breeze is expected to move inland during the day, and depending on where it ends up, it could spark a few showers in the vicinity of the track. Forecasting a small scale feature like the sea breeze this far out is difficult, but it is at least a possibility that it will reach Sebring in the afternoon. If it does occur, any rain should be light and not cause major problems. You can keep an eye on the radar today by using our live radar feed, and updates will be posted on my Twitter feed - @Race4caster. On a side note, Scott and I will have some exciting news coming soon about a new venture for Racecast Weather! By Doug Schneider My confidence in the foreast is increasing as we approach the end of the week. No big changes were needed for this update; I mainly just bumped temperatures up a little. The computer models are coming into better agreement that the majority of the activities at Sebring will stay dry.
There will be a weak disturbance that moves by quickly on Thursday that may spark a few afternoon and evening showers. There's just a slight chance that one will affect the track, and if it does, any rainfall should be light. Friday and Saturday should be dry as high pressure builds back over the area. A cold front will be approaching from the northwest on Sunday, but it looks like any rain with this should hold off until after the end of the race. That slight chance of rain I have in for Saturday night should mainly be late in the night, probably closer to sunrise Sunday morning. As teams and fans pack up to leave on Sunday, there is a chance that there will be some showers around. I can say with full confidence that this race, meteorologically speaking, will be nothing like the 1965 edition of the 12 Hours of Sebring. By Doug Schneider A nice week of weather is expected for the 12 Hours of Sebring, but there is some uncertainty in this forecast. Different computer models are showing different rain chances for Friday and Saturday. As you can see, I am going with the drier of the models (the ECMWF).
A ridge of high pressure will be over Florida to start the event on Wednesday, but the ridge breaks down on Thursday as a weak upper level trough moves over the region. This may allow a chance of showers, mainly in the afternoon and evening. The drier ECMWF model shows a weak ridge building back over the area for Friday and Saturday before a low pressure system approaches from the west on Sunday. The GFS model does not show as much of a ridge, and is faster to bring in the next low pressure system. If this occurs, there would be a higher chance of rain on Saturday. For now, I'm leaning toward the drier forecast because the ECMWF has been the more consistent of the two models - each run of the GFS seems to switch back and forth on the rain chances. In either case, temperatures look pleasant each day, with highs in the lower 80s. For forecast updates through the week, follow the @RacecastWx and @Race4caster Twitter feeds. By Scott Martin Well I hope you enjoyed the opening event for the Pirelli World Challenge series at Circuit Of The Americas. I certainly enjoyed what I saw on the live feed, even Sunday. Now its time to check and see how well my forecasts held up to what happened at the track. The official readings came from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. Fortunately, most of the forecast went as expected. At first, I thought that the rain would occur on Saturday and would only would be a slight chance at the time. As the week progressed, I was becoming more confident that the rain would hold off until Sunday. The temperature trends at the beginning of the forecast period were predicting cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday, and warmer on Sunday. I was being conservative and stuck close to those trends and ended up wrong. As the week progressed, I was still unsure about the temperatures for Saturday because I just didn't know how much the southwesterly flow across the state would affect the highs. I underestimated the warmth for Saturday on my Friday forecast. Weather prediction and forecasting is not an exact science as of yet. I will try my best to do better in the places where I messed up and strive to bring you a more accurate outlook. By Scott Martin As you can see from the graphic above, Sunday may be a wet day through and through. Below are the latest NAM 4k model runs and it is clear to see that it is projecting rain and maybe some thunder throughout the day. I do not believe any of these storms will get strong or severe, but do remember to seek shelter if it is lightning. Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s with wind shifting from the southeast in the morning to east in the late afternoon hours. Rain chances are at 80%. I do not believe there will be any breakage in the clouds at all for the sun to shine through.
I hate that rainy conditions are going to dampen the last day at COTA, because the racing so far has been exciting. A lot of big name drivers will be trying to rebound after having some terrible luck in their first race. We have live radar going for COTA right now on our Radar page on this website, and we have another radar up on the Pirelli World Challenge series website at world-challenge.com. Click on the Weather link in the Event Weekend box at the top-right of the page. By Scott Martin SATURDAY Day will start off with a few cloudy and definitely warmer than yesterday. I'm actually bumping the daytime highs up to the upper 50s, with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light today from the southeast at 2-5 MPH. Chance of rain during the day is 0%. Here is temperature and sky condition breakdown for today... 8AM - Partly Cloudy 44º 10AM - Partly Cloudy 48º 12PM - Partly Cloudy 54º 2PM - Partly Cloudy 57º 4PM - Partly Cloudy 57º 6PM - Partly Cloudy 56º Tonight, skies will become mostly cloudy. A chance of rain before daybreak is not out of the question. If it does rain any at all, it will be a brief passing shower. Lows will be warmer due to the cloud cover and should only fall to the mid 40s. Winds will be from the southeast at 2-5 MPH. SUNDAY The latest model runs have come into good agreement, and it looks like that it may be a cloudy and a rainy day. Click on the images below to make larger. As you can see by the images above, rain will unfortunately be included in the forecast throughout the day. Skies will be cloudy with an 80% chance of rain. Highs will top out in the mid 50s, with winds out of the east at 5-10 MPH.
By Scott Martin FRIDAY Looks like the day will turn out to be a beautiful day outright, even though you will have to put up with cold temperatures to start the day. Sunny skies throughout the day will bring some relief to the cold, but only a little. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 50s with winds from the northeast averaging at 5 MPH. There is no chance of rain throughout the day or night. Skies will become partly cloudy throughout the evening. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 30s with winds from the northeast averaging 2-5 MPH. Here is a breakdown of what I think the temperatures will be throughout the daytime: 8AM - 26ºF, 10AM - 34ºF, 12PM - 45ºF, 2PM - 48ºF, 4PM - 50ºF, 6PM - 46ºF. SATURDAY The day starts off a little warmer than Friday, with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are expected to be close to freezing at 8AM. Skies will become mostly cloudy by the afternoon, maybe as early as lunch time. Daytime highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 50s with winds from the east averaging 5 MPH. Skies will stay mostly cloudy with rain chances starting to creep in after 10PM. At this point, rain amounts look to be very small and I wouldn't be surprised if none falls at all. Lows will bottom out at or near 40 with winds from the southeast averaging 2-5 MPH. Chance of rain during the overnight hours is 30%. SUNDAY I wish I could have better news as of right now, but I had to up the rain chances for Sunday. Day starts off at 8AM with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and a possible shower. The atmosphere will be pretty moist throughout the day, so I think it would be a good idea for teams to have the rain tires at the ready. As you can see from the latest run of the NAM 4km model, there is a batch of showers expected to be moving across the area. This image is valid at 12z (7AM) on Sunday morning. Rain chances stay up through the afternoon. Bottom line is skies will be mostly cloudy to cloudy with a chance of rain. Daytime highs are expected to reach the mid 50s with winds mostly from the east averaging 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 40%, with amounts totaling up to 0.3 of an inch.
So with each update, is seems the rain is trending to move in later than each previous model run. Wouldn't it be great if models continue that trend, and the rain doesn't move through the area until after 5PM on Sunday? If any changes are needed to be made, be sure to watch for updates at our new team Twitter feed @RacecastWx, and follow both mine (@RaceWx4You) and Doug's (@Race4caster) feeds. We also have live radar on our website and on the Pirelli World Challenge website at world-challenge.com. Just click on the Weather link in the Event Weekend box at the top-right of the page. We also have our Racecast Weather Facebook page, so be sure to like the page to receive updates there as well. |
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