By Doug Schneider (@Race4caster)
It's going to be a soggy opening day for the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona. The radar this morning shows rain blanketing pretty much the entire Florida peninsula. A front is located from Tampa to Orlando to Daytona, which will remain nearly stationary in that location through the day. It will be the focus for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms all day. Some of the showers will produce heavy rainfall, and the total rainfall amount through today and tonight is expected to be between 1.5 and 2 inches. The Storm Prediction Center is also calling for a marginal threat of severe thunderstorms today in central Florida. I don't expect this to be a problem, but it's something to be aware of if you're at the track today. Although the Ferrari Challenge and Continental Tire SportsCar Challenge are scheduled to practice today, I strongly doubt that there will be any on-track activity today. We'll have our live radar feed running today - follow the Radar link at the top of the website.
The low pressure center will track east across central Florida on Thursday, followed by a cold front. This will keep rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms going through the day, although the rain amounts on Thursday will likely be less than Wednesday, probably around a quarter inch or so. But the question remains, when will the rain end? The majority of the models show a cold front moving through the Daytona area in the afternoon, and dry air builds in shortly after, ending any chance of rain in the evening. There is one model (the NAM) that is much slower with the cold front and drier air, keeping rain over Daytona until early Friday morning. I favor the faster model consensus, and I think the majority of the rain on Thursday will come in the morning, with decreasing rain chances through the afternoon, and any rain chance ending before midnight. This is what I've been forecasting since Sunday, and I'm going to stick with it. While there will be a chance of rain all day on Thursday, the afternoon qualifying sessions are more likely to take place than the morning practice sessions.
Here is the forecast rainfall amount map from the National Weather Service for Wednesday through Thursday night (again, the majority of this rain will fall on Wednesday). That's about 2 inches at Daytona (the white dot).
The low pressure center will track east across central Florida on Thursday, followed by a cold front. This will keep rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms going through the day, although the rain amounts on Thursday will likely be less than Wednesday, probably around a quarter inch or so. But the question remains, when will the rain end? The majority of the models show a cold front moving through the Daytona area in the afternoon, and dry air builds in shortly after, ending any chance of rain in the evening. There is one model (the NAM) that is much slower with the cold front and drier air, keeping rain over Daytona until early Friday morning. I favor the faster model consensus, and I think the majority of the rain on Thursday will come in the morning, with decreasing rain chances through the afternoon, and any rain chance ending before midnight. This is what I've been forecasting since Sunday, and I'm going to stick with it. While there will be a chance of rain all day on Thursday, the afternoon qualifying sessions are more likely to take place than the morning practice sessions.
Here is the forecast rainfall amount map from the National Weather Service for Wednesday through Thursday night (again, the majority of this rain will fall on Wednesday). That's about 2 inches at Daytona (the white dot).
The weather for the rest of the event looks great, with plenty of sunshine each day. High pressure will move from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula Friday through Sunday. A northwest wind of 10-15 mph will keep temperatures rather chilly, with highs Friday in the lower 60s, and lows Saturday morning in the lower 40s. Temperatures will continue to trend upward for Saturday (upper 60s) and Sunday (lower 70s) as the high pressure center moves east of Florida. I don't think you could ask for better weather from start to finish for a 24 hour race (except perhaps for some warmer temperatures, if you like that sort of thing).
The forecast graphic in Celsius:
The forecast graphic in Celsius:
