By Doug Schneider
My concern for weather impacts on Sunday's qualifying sessions is rising as we get closer to the weekend. Rain is likely to occur on Sunday, although there are some details about timing, duration, and amounts that are still unclear.
Saturday continues to look nice, with plenty of sunshine expected all day. A breezy southwest wind will supply warm temperatures at the Speedway, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 80s. Winds will be the biggest factor for Saturday, as they will be blowing between 10 and 20 mph, and gusting up to 25 mph at times.
Models are in good agreement that there will be rain at some point on Sunday. I'm confident that there will be rain at some point, however I am less confident on how long that rain will last and how much will fall. Both of these factors will decide how much time will be available to qualify on Sunday.
The GFS model shows the most optimistic scenario of a single line of storms quickly moving through around late morning to early afternoon, with amounts between a tenth to a quarter inch. If this occurs, there may be delays for track drying, but there should be enough time to get qualifying done on Sunday.
The worst case scenario is shown by the NAM, which brings an area of showers through in the morning, then another round of stronger storms in the afternoon, with total rain amounts over 1 inch. If this scenario pans out, I expect qualifying to be moved to Monday. There is too much uncertainty to say which scenario will happen at this time.
I'll have another update either Friday night or Saturday morning. Hopefully the models will reverse their wet trend and I can bring better news.
Saturday continues to look nice, with plenty of sunshine expected all day. A breezy southwest wind will supply warm temperatures at the Speedway, with afternoon highs reaching the mid 80s. Winds will be the biggest factor for Saturday, as they will be blowing between 10 and 20 mph, and gusting up to 25 mph at times.
Models are in good agreement that there will be rain at some point on Sunday. I'm confident that there will be rain at some point, however I am less confident on how long that rain will last and how much will fall. Both of these factors will decide how much time will be available to qualify on Sunday.
The GFS model shows the most optimistic scenario of a single line of storms quickly moving through around late morning to early afternoon, with amounts between a tenth to a quarter inch. If this occurs, there may be delays for track drying, but there should be enough time to get qualifying done on Sunday.
The worst case scenario is shown by the NAM, which brings an area of showers through in the morning, then another round of stronger storms in the afternoon, with total rain amounts over 1 inch. If this scenario pans out, I expect qualifying to be moved to Monday. There is too much uncertainty to say which scenario will happen at this time.
I'll have another update either Friday night or Saturday morning. Hopefully the models will reverse their wet trend and I can bring better news.
