Racecast verification: Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona

By Doug Schneider

Let's take a look back at how well the forecast for the Rolex 24 verified.

The forecast did well in the most important area - the precipitation forecast. The initial forecast on 1/21 mentioned a few sprinkles or a brief light shower were possible on Saturday night and Sunday morning, which is exactly what occurred. Only a trace of rain was reported at the airport from a small shower around 8 pm that lasted about 10 minutes. That initial forecast was uncertain about the timing of heavy rain, but the two later forecasts mentioned that heavy rain appeared likely to hold off until after the race ended. There were some periods of sprinkles Sunday morning, but heavy rain wasn't reported at the airport until 6:50 pm. I'm very pleased with how the forecast worked out. 

The low temperature forecast didn't work out as well on Thursday night and Friday night, but I don't think anyone will be too critical for missing the overnight temperatures that were warmer than forecast. I suspect the reason that temperatures stayed so mild overnight was that the wind each night stayed up, between 8 and 14 mph. Calm winds allow for the temperatures to drop lower than when winds stay up. The low temperature forecast Saturday night during the race was good, which was probably the most important night to get right.

There was more sunshine on Sunday than I expected, which allowed temperatures to rise to 77 degrees that afternoon, about 4 to 5 degrees higher than forecast.