By Doug Schneider
The forecast for Sebring had some good points and some bad points. First, the good points: I think the probability of precipitation (PoP) forecast was good, if a tad too pessimistic. The day that I had forecast the best chances of rain did get some rain in the evening, around 9 pm. From some followers of Racecast Weather on Twitter who were at the track (thanks to Racecast Weather unofficial spotters Michael Goodwin and Vickie Miller), I learned that there were a few drops that fell at the track. From a verification standpoint however, we have to have measureable precipitation (0.01 inches or more) to count as a hit. But I only had 20 to 30 percent rain chances in the forecast, so that's a 70% to 80% chance of no measureable rain, which is good. There was no rain on Friday, as forecast, and the 80% chance of dry weather worked out on Saturday.
The temperature forecast was a little ugly, to be honest. But I have definitely learned something about forecasting temperatures for Sebring - it's one of the hottest places in the state of Florida. Take a look at this plot of surface observations from the mesonet across central and south Florida from Saturday afternoon:
The temperature forecast was a little ugly, to be honest. But I have definitely learned something about forecasting temperatures for Sebring - it's one of the hottest places in the state of Florida. Take a look at this plot of surface observations from the mesonet across central and south Florida from Saturday afternoon:
Sebring Raceway is at the red dot, and you can see that the site nearby shows a temperature of 93, compared to most other sites in the area, which were in the 85 to 90 range. At least I trended the forecast in the right direction, warming temperatures with each update, and ended up pretty close on the last forecast. I'll make a note of the local Sebring heat island effect for my next Sebring forecast.
