By Doug Schneider
The models are starting to come into better agreement on some aspects of the forecast for Sunday at IMS, in particular the timing of two main rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop in Iowa and Missouri tonight, then move east across Illinois Sunday morning. This first round of storms is expected in the IMS area around 2 pm, give or take an hour. The earliest potential arrival time of storms is noon, and the latest is around 3 pm, but 2 pm appears the most likely time of arrival. These storms may last about an hour to an hour and a half. With that expected arrival time, there may be enough time to race for about an hour to maybe an hour and a half before rain arrives. If the start time can be moved earlier, that would be ideal, but I don't know how likely INDYCAR is to do that. Moving it earlier would increase the chance of getting an official race in.
Update: Here is what IMS President J. Douglas Boles had to say about moving the start time earlier - Question: Would you ever move up the race? “I don’t think so. Because people know when it is. We’ve never really moved it up. Now I say that, I can see where we might say, ‘Look, people are basically in their seats by noon and ready to go.’ If for whatever reason we thought moving it up by 10 or 20 minutes, because right now I think the Green flag is roughly 12:35 p.m. so if we said, ‘Hey, we’re going to move the green flag up to 12:15 p.m.’ I can see that potentially happening, but I don’t see us making a wild change to say ‘Hey we’re going to start it early or whatever.’ So plan on it starting when it’s supposed to start.”
The biggest uncertainty is what happens after the first round of storms moves through. Will there be a dry period of several hours, or will there be scattered on/off showers and storms through the mid to late afternoon? This will make all the difference in the chance to dry the track and restart the race. There may be a dry period for several hours that would allow time to dry the track and complete the race, or it could be a frustrating situation where drying attempts are interrupted by a passing shower or storm. Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but I think the most likely scenario is a period of several hours without rain, likely between 4 and 7 pm. That is what a majority of models are indicating, but they aren't perfect.
A second round of storms is expected in the evening, arriving around 8 or 9 pm. Since sunset is around 9 pm, I would guess that 8 pm might be the latest time they would run, but I'm not sure about that. I think storms in the area will likely end any running around 8 pm anyway. These storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for areas along and south of I-74. For those remaining at the track that late, be prepared to find sturdy shelter from these storms.
I'll be posting radar updates through the day on our X account, @RacecastWx.
Update: Here is what IMS President J. Douglas Boles had to say about moving the start time earlier - Question: Would you ever move up the race? “I don’t think so. Because people know when it is. We’ve never really moved it up. Now I say that, I can see where we might say, ‘Look, people are basically in their seats by noon and ready to go.’ If for whatever reason we thought moving it up by 10 or 20 minutes, because right now I think the Green flag is roughly 12:35 p.m. so if we said, ‘Hey, we’re going to move the green flag up to 12:15 p.m.’ I can see that potentially happening, but I don’t see us making a wild change to say ‘Hey we’re going to start it early or whatever.’ So plan on it starting when it’s supposed to start.”
The biggest uncertainty is what happens after the first round of storms moves through. Will there be a dry period of several hours, or will there be scattered on/off showers and storms through the mid to late afternoon? This will make all the difference in the chance to dry the track and restart the race. There may be a dry period for several hours that would allow time to dry the track and complete the race, or it could be a frustrating situation where drying attempts are interrupted by a passing shower or storm. Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but I think the most likely scenario is a period of several hours without rain, likely between 4 and 7 pm. That is what a majority of models are indicating, but they aren't perfect.
A second round of storms is expected in the evening, arriving around 8 or 9 pm. Since sunset is around 9 pm, I would guess that 8 pm might be the latest time they would run, but I'm not sure about that. I think storms in the area will likely end any running around 8 pm anyway. These storms could be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts and large hail, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for areas along and south of I-74. For those remaining at the track that late, be prepared to find sturdy shelter from these storms.
I'll be posting radar updates through the day on our X account, @RacecastWx.
