Saturday will start off really nice in St. Petersburg, but clouds will be on the increase and a few showers are possible during the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Temperatures will start off in the upper 50s at 7 AM but will warm nicely into the lower 70s by early afternoon. It looks at this point that any chances for shower activity will start after the 2 PM hour and will increase after the on-track activity has finished for the day. The chance for any rain during the afternoon hours will be around 20%, and there is a very small chance of thunder as well. I do not believe at this point that any shower that passes over St. Pete will last that long, and amounts will be 0.01 inches or less. Winds will be out of the southeast to the south at 7-10 MPH.
The good news is that it will not rain all day long, but there will be some periods of rain and thunder. The bad news is that there is the possibility for stronger storms during the afternoon and early evening hours across Central Florida, including St. Petersburg.
The latest solution from the hi-res NAM is showing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across Central Florida throughout the day, but the coverage on this run is coming in a lot less than the previous runs. I still believe there will be a chance of rain or thunderstorms at any point throughout the day on Sunday, so I've backed the rain chances down to 50%.
Now, with that being said, there will be plenty of instability to work with along with a decent amount of helicity for any updrafts to start turning. Significant tornado parameters are topping out over 1.2 in the area, and that means that conditions will exist for an isolated tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has all of Central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1) for severe storms throughout the day on Sunday
At this point, it looks like the best chance for stronger to severe storms will be during the late morning hours to after track activity ends for the day. The Storm Prediction Center did say in their latest Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook that upgrading to a Slight Risk (level 2) for severe storms may be warranted if the forecast confidence increases with this scenario.
Winds will be gusty at times, averaging 7-14 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH possible. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s after starting off in the mid-60s at 7 AM. Rainfall amounts throughout the day will probably end up around 1/4-inch or less.
PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE... Lightning looks to be possible throughout the entire day, with it more likely throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Listen to the PA to see where you would need to go if a thunderstorm approaches. I'll have updates throughout the weekend, especially on Sunday. Radar is up and running on the site and on the Pirelli World Challenge website and just click on the link for weather.