By Doug Schneider
In the ten years that I've been doing race forecasts, this is by far the most difficult Indy 500 forecast I've done. There is still uncertainty about the exact timing of when showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, but I have higher confidence today than I did with my forecast a few days ago. The bottom line is that I do expect there to be racing on Sunday. I also expect rain to impact at least some of the race. This is why I have a "Low" impact on Sunday - I expect delays due to rain, but I think there can be enough racing to make the race "official".
For the races this evening at IRP and the Carb Day concerts, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in the area between 6 pm and 10 pm. This should be just after the concerts, but the IRP races may be affected. With scattered coverage expected, it's possible the storms could avoid IRP completely. But if you're at IRP this evening, stay weather aware and know where to find shelter.
A thunderstorm complex is expected to be moving across Iowa and Missouri on Saturday night, and will likely be crossing the Mississippi River near daybreak Sunday morning. It is expected to hold together as it moves across Illinois Sunday morning. The question is when it will arrive at the Speedway.
Here are the two possible scenarios that may happen:
1) Showers and thunderstorms from the west move through in a window between 11 am and 2 pm, then there is a window of several hours when track dying will be possible, and much of the race can be completed before another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives around 7 pm to 9 pm.
2) Showers and thunderstorms from the west arrive in the area around 3 pm. This would allow for a good portion of the race to be completed before the rain arrives.
In my experience forecasting thunderstorm complexes like this, the faster speed of the system is usually what happens. The models are often too slow with them. So I expect that scenario 1 is the more likely of the two. In either case, I do think there will be a good chance of getting at least part of the race completed on Sunday.
Another concern is the potential for them to be strong to severe in the afternoon and evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has the area in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather (3 on the scale of 1 to 5). If the first scenario plays out, the initial round of showers and storms will not be severe, although lightning will be a threat. It is the second round that may move through later in the day that will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Hopefully the race will be completed and the track emptied out by then.
If it is necessary to run on Monday, the weather looks good by the afternoon. A few morning showers are possible, but the rest of the day will be dry with a high in the mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
Be sure to follow @RacecastWx on X, and RacecastWeather on Facebook. I'll be posting updates there during race day.
For the races this evening at IRP and the Carb Day concerts, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in the area between 6 pm and 10 pm. This should be just after the concerts, but the IRP races may be affected. With scattered coverage expected, it's possible the storms could avoid IRP completely. But if you're at IRP this evening, stay weather aware and know where to find shelter.
A thunderstorm complex is expected to be moving across Iowa and Missouri on Saturday night, and will likely be crossing the Mississippi River near daybreak Sunday morning. It is expected to hold together as it moves across Illinois Sunday morning. The question is when it will arrive at the Speedway.
Here are the two possible scenarios that may happen:
1) Showers and thunderstorms from the west move through in a window between 11 am and 2 pm, then there is a window of several hours when track dying will be possible, and much of the race can be completed before another round of showers and thunderstorms arrives around 7 pm to 9 pm.
2) Showers and thunderstorms from the west arrive in the area around 3 pm. This would allow for a good portion of the race to be completed before the rain arrives.
In my experience forecasting thunderstorm complexes like this, the faster speed of the system is usually what happens. The models are often too slow with them. So I expect that scenario 1 is the more likely of the two. In either case, I do think there will be a good chance of getting at least part of the race completed on Sunday.
Another concern is the potential for them to be strong to severe in the afternoon and evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has the area in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather (3 on the scale of 1 to 5). If the first scenario plays out, the initial round of showers and storms will not be severe, although lightning will be a threat. It is the second round that may move through later in the day that will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Hopefully the race will be completed and the track emptied out by then.
If it is necessary to run on Monday, the weather looks good by the afternoon. A few morning showers are possible, but the rest of the day will be dry with a high in the mid 70s and mostly sunny skies.
Be sure to follow @RacecastWx on X, and RacecastWeather on Facebook. I'll be posting updates there during race day.
