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First forecast for the 102nd Indianapolis 500

5/21/2018

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By Doug Schneider
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After some showers and thunderstorms move across Indiana today, the weather looks good through the rest of this work week as high pressure builds over the area on Tuesday. Unfortunately, that high pressure system will be losing its grip on the area by the weekend, and a low pressure system will be approaching from the west, which will bring a threat of rain for Saturday and Sunday at IMS. 

Carb Day weather looks great for the Indy Lights Freedom 100, the Pit Stop Challenge, the Carb Night Classic at Lucas Oil Raceway, and the evening concerts. Be sure to bring some sunscreen to the track, as it will be a mostly sunny and warm day with highs in the mid 80s. 

With the high pressure system moving off the east coast and a low pressure system tracking across the northern Plains, a southerly flow will start to increase moisture over Indiana on Saturday. The moisture and warm temperatures may be adequate to allow afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop for Legends Day activities. The late afternoon and evening concerts will have the greatest chance of being impacted, but as of today it only looks like a 20% chance of a storm hitting the Speedway. 

On Race Day the low pressure system is expected to be over the Great Lakes region. Although there are some model differences in the position of the low, which will affect the timing of any showers and storms, they are in good enough agreement about the pattern that I have to include a 40% chance of showers and storms in the forecast. One model (GFS) is currently quicker to exit the rain chance on Saturday night, with drying conditions on Sunday. Hopefully this will happen and I can adjust the forecast in a drier direction over the next few days. 
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    Authors

    Doug Schneider, Scott Martin, and Stephen McCoy are race fans and meteorologists dedicated to providing accurate forecasts and timely weather updates at racing venues around the world. We forecast for IndyCar, Indy Lights, Pro Mazda, USF2000, IMSA, Blancpain World Challenge America, and World Endurance Championship, as well as major SCCA and NASA events.


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