I ran across this graphic today that shows what you should do if you are caught outside when lightning is nearby. Of course, the best option is to find shelter. But at race tracks, that is often not an option for everyone. If you have no other choice, this is the position that will give you the best chances of surviving a lightning strike. (H/T - Mike Smith Enterprises Blog)
By Doug Schneider
I ran across this graphic today that shows what you should do if you are caught outside when lightning is nearby. Of course, the best option is to find shelter. But at race tracks, that is often not an option for everyone. If you have no other choice, this is the position that will give you the best chances of surviving a lightning strike. (H/T - Mike Smith Enterprises Blog) By Doug Schneider
When you go to a race track, you probably don’t put a lot of thought into what you would do if hazardous weather was approaching the track. Thankfully, there are many people at the track who have given a lot of thought about how to protect fans as much as possible from weather threats. Tracks have safety plans that outline what actions need to be taken for various hazards. But a simple fact that cannot be changed is that fans at race tracks are highly vulnerable to hazardous weather. Thousands of people are exposed to the weather in open areas with very few places to find adequate indoor shelter. There is only so much planning and preparedness that tracks can do to keep fans safe. Safety can never be guaranteed, but with advance preparation, proper situational awareness, and clear communication, the chances of weather-related injuries can be greatly diminished. I wanted to get a behind-the-scenes look at how race tracks prepare for hazardous weather, and what resources they have to assist in making weather-related decisions. My hope is that by better understanding the challenges that tracks face from hazardous weather, fans will be more weather-aware at the track, and be better prepared to take steps for their own safety. I contacted tracks across North America that host spectator events. Three tracks kindly answered my questions - Virginia International Raceway, Road America, and Sonoma Raceway. With these three tracks located in very different geographical areas, we get a good sampling of the unique challenges they face from the weather. Because some of their answers are part of internal safety procedures that are not typically shared with the public, their answers are kept anonymous and are listed randomly. If hazardous weather is approaching your track during an event, who is responsible for making the call for people to seek shelter?
Does this person have access to a meteorologist who can be called on to provide assistance with weather-related decisions?
Does your track have access to a service that provides real-time radar, lightning, warnings, and other weather information?
Does your track have indoor facilities where people can seek shelter in the event of hazardous weather? If so, approximately how many people can these facilities hold? If not, or if facilities are not large enough, where are people directed to stay safe from hazardous weather?
How are people at the track informed of the need to seek shelter?
Thank you to VIR, Road America, and Sonoma Raceway for taking the time to answer my questions. Some of my thoughts in closing:
By Doug Schneider (@Race4caster) I've already been seeing some forecasts for the Rolex 24 posted on social media. Some weather outlets have forecasts that go out over a month in advance - forecasting temperatures down to the degree, how much cloud cover there will be, and even whether rain will be light or heavy. I value my professional reputation too much to do such a thing. In my opinion, making a forecast that specific so far in advance is borderline irresponsible, and misrepresents the current limits of the science of meteorology. Depending on the weather pattern, computer models do not show a reasonable amount of predictive skill until 6 to 10 days in advance, and sometimes even less than that. As a general rule, I would not have any confidence in a specific weather forecast that goes beyond a week. However, we can predict with some skill whether the weather pattern will favor temperatures or precipitation that are above or below climatology. Let me clarify a few things in that sentence. By "weather pattern", I mean the pattern of ridges and troughs that circulate around the Northern Hemisphere in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Think of the atmosphere as waves in the ocean - there are ridges and troughs, and these waves rotate around the earth. The troughs bring cold air southward, and the ridges bring warm air northward. Some troughs are "deeper" (reach farther southward) than others. These waves usually circulate counter-clockwise around the Northern Hemisphere. There are several large-scale signals (El Nino being one of them) in the atmosphere and the ocean that influence the frequency, speed, and amplitude of these waves, allowing meteorologists to make predictions about how the wave pattern will change. The troughs and ridges influence the weather you feel at the ground by transporting masses of cold or warm air, and dry or moist air. They also generate areas of rising air or sinking air. By "climatology", I mean the weather than can typically be expected over a region of the globe at a certain time of the year, based on a 30-year average of temperature and precipitation (this average is also called "normal"). Based on climatology for Daytona Beach, Florida, a typical day in late January around the Rolex 24 weekend will have a high temperature of 69 degrees, a low temperature of 48 degrees, and about a 35% chance of rain. Here's a nice website that gives the climatology of Daytona Beach throughout the year. If we can predict the pattern of waves across the Northern Hemisphere a few weeks in advance, then we can have some idea if the chances of rain are higher or lower than climatology, or if temperatures will be higher or lower than climatology. We can have a general idea of what might be expected for a region over a period of a few days in comparison to the 30-year average. However, we cannot skillfully predict what the temperature will be on a specific day in a specific location a month in advance. The Climate Prediction Center is a branch of NOAA that issues these long term weather outlooks. They make weekly, monthly, and seasonal forecasts of how the weather will deviate from climatology. They predict if the temperature and precipitation is likely to be above or below normal, expressed as a "percent chance" that reflects their confidence. Sometimes the predicted wave pattern does not give a clear signal of whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal. In this case, their forecast will be for "equal chances" of above or below normal. Here's their latest outlook that covers the Rolex 24 weekend: The image on the left of the probability of temperature above or below normal shows equal chances across Florida, so there's no strong signal that temperatures will either above or below normal. The most likely scenario is that temperatures will be fairly close to normal.
The image on the right shows that there is a 60% chance or greater that precipitation will be above normal. Keep in mind that this forecast covers a period of two weeks, and the Rolex 24 weekend is only two days out of the 14 days that it covers. So those two days could be completely dry, but the other 12 days have rain, and the forecast of above normal rainfall would still be accurate. That's the extent of what meteorologists can confidently tell about the weather this far out. If you see forecasts that tell you more detail than that two weeks away, take them with a grain of salt. I'll have the full Rolex 24 forecast up a week before the race, on January 24. If you haven't, you probably will soon. Irresponsible headline writers will try to grab your attention and strike fear into everyone with dire warnings of the terrors of the El Niño that's GOING TO HIT YOU. Despite the headlines, El Niño is not a terrible storm that is coming to your neighborhood to wreak havoc. There is going to be a strong El Niño this winter. But what exactly does that mean, and how does it affect you? El Niño is a phase of what is called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle describes the fluctuations in temperatures between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Pacific near the equator. The other part of the ENSO phase is called La Niña. The fluctuations in temperature are due to the strength of the trade winds in the equatorial Pacific. The trade winds usually move from east to west, which pushes the warm sea surface water to the west. As the water moves away from the South American coast, deep, cooler water rises to the surface to replace the displaced warm water. During the transition to El Niño, the trade winds begin to weaken. This pushes less warm water westward across the Pacific, so the warm water tends to remain in the central and eastern Pacific. Eventually, the trade winds can reverse their normal westerly direction and begin to blow toward the east. So El Niño is simply when water temperatures in the east equatorial Pacific Ocean are warmer than normal. La Niña is when the water temperatures in the east equatorial Pacific Ocean are colder than normal. The name El Niño is Spanish for "the boy", but refers to the Christ child because its effects near the South American coast are often most noticeable around Christmas. The water near the coast during El Niño tends to be nutrient-poor, which can have an impact to local fishing. The image below shows what El Niño looks like using a satellite that detects sea surface temperatures. It shows the departure of the water temperature from normal, and you can see the abnormally warm water (orange and red areas) along the equator and near the northwest coast of South America. So how does El Niño impact the weather in North America? As the position of the warm water along the equator shifts across the Pacific Ocean, the position where the greatest evaporation of water into the atmosphere also shifts with it. This has a profound effect on the typical position of the jet stream across the Pacific Ocean. The jet stream is a band of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that impacts the formation of weather systems. El Niño tends to extend the jet stream farther east and position it farther south than normal. This results in a shift of the typical storm track from the northern to the southern part of the U.S. It also tends to result in more low pressure systems forming west of California. The change in the typical tracks of storms can cause increased precipitation across California and the southern U.S. Northern states tend to have warmer and drier winters during an El Niño event, due to the polar jet stream shifting farther north, which brings less cold air southward. These effects tend to be strongest across North America during the winter. The El Niño of 1997-98 was a particularly strong one, and that winter saw record rainfalls and destructive mudslides in California. While every event is different, the forecast is for a similarly strong El Niño to occur this winter. But there are other effects in the atmosphere that will influence the weather across the U.S. this winter, and this makes it difficult to say that this winter's weather will be similar to 1997-98. We can only make general statements about what could happen, such as the chance of above normal rainfall in Southern California is higher, or that the northern parts of the U.S. is more likely to have above normal temperatures. El Niño can tilt the odds of a certain type of weather one way or the other, but there is not a clear connection between El Niño strength and weather impacts. So dire warnings of a monster, deadly, destructive El Niño are extremely misplaced. The best approach is to keep watching the weather forecasts and take any warnings from the National Weather Service seriously. There's no need to panic about this guy:
By Doug Schneider
A common response I get from people when I tell them I'm a meteorologist is "I'm fascinated with weather, I would have loved to study weather!" Being a meteorologist is a dream that many people seem to have, but few achieve in reality. I became fascinated with weather at a young age (5 years old, in 1979, to be exact), and I've been tremendously blessed to make a career out of doing what I love. But it is most definitely NOT a job for everyone.
I read an article at The Vane weather blog called Do You Have What It Takes to Predict the Future? The Reality Behind Becoming a Meteorologist by Dennis Mersereau, and I thought it summed up the challenges of being a meteorologist very well. Below are some quotes from the article, with some of my commentary inserted. Math and Physics
From the very beginning, math was always my weakest subject in school. I found that the quality of teacher greatly affected my results in my math classes, but it was never a subject that I enjoyed. In college, I pushed my way through Calculus I, II, III, Differential Equations, and Statistics because I knew they were necessary to reach my goal. I hated those classes and struggled with them, but my love of meteorology got me through them. Math is the foundation of meteorology, and you have to have a solid foundation in place before you can build a deep knowledge of how weather works.
Forecasting
I get teased a lot that meteorology is the only job where you can be wrong half the time and still keep your job. Honestly, if I were wrong half the time, I don't think I'd want to keep this job anymore! The accuracy of weather forecasting has improved by leaps and bounds over the past few decades, and a large portion of that improvement is due to increased computer power and greater capabilities of weather models. But as helpful as they are, the models by themselves are still less accurate than a human who interprets the models through their filter of knowledge and experience. This is why you should be careful about where you get your weather forecasts - some sources only regurgitate model output.
Busted Egos
Meteorology is an incredibly humbling career. I've had my share of forecast busts in my time, and with most things in life, I try to learn what I can from them so I can do better next time. Just when you think you have it all figured out, the next weather system comes along and brings you back to reality. I think it is important to be open and honest about our limitations in forecasting the weather. There is still a lot that is not understood about how the atmosphere works, and even if we did understand it all, we couldn't have enough instruments in place to measure every part of the atmosphere around the entire earth. So it will always be an imperfect science. We do the best we can with the tools we have.
People
While I was in high school and college, I worked at a McDonald's. Dealing with difficult people in that setting was a great learning experience for my future meteorology career. Being the target of someone's anger is never fun, but in this job, you have to learn how to deal with it. I find it odd that people are often so dismissive of the ability of meteorologists to predict the weather, yet the same people get angry when the meteorologist is wrong. Perhaps that fact that people get angry over a missed forecast speaks to how well meteorologists do most of the time, and the high expectation of accuracy that people have developed as a result.
Jobs
The best advice I can give to an aspiring meteorologist is to get hands-on experience in any way possible. In meteorology, experience really is the best teacher. It's more important than making good grades in college. Join a local chapter of the AMS or the NWA. Get involved in a forecasting competition. Attend a conference and meet people in the field. If there is a NWS office near your location, pay them a visit and find out about any opportunities to volunteer. I started volunteering at a NWS office my first year in college, and continued to do so until I graduated and got hired at that office. The NWS also has a paid internship program for students.
If you want to be a forecaster, then you have to be prepared to work all kinds of crazy hours. The weather never stops, and neither do the forecasters, so shift work and weekend work are part of the job. It will affect your social life and your family life. There can be moments of high stress (issuing a tornado warning when you know people in its path will die) as well as moments of boredom (stationary high pressure sitting overhead, or as we say, "big bubble, no trouble"). But I can't think of a job I'd rather do. Weather Is Awesome
Bingo. Couldn't have said it any better myself.
If you're a weather fanatic but meteorology isn't the career for you, there are still ways you can get involved. You can become a Skywarn spotter, join the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), or become an official NWS Cooperative Observer. If you have any questions about becoming a meteorologist, I'm happy to help. Just use the contact link at the top of the website, or contact me on Twitter at @Race4caster.
By Doug Schneider
If you own a smart phone, you probably have a weather app installed on it. But do you know where the weather information in the app is coming from? Do you know how its forecasts are being produced? The answers to these questions can often make a big difference in the accuracy of your app's forecast. While watching radar and forecasting for the 24 Hours of Le Mans last weekend, I came across some forecasts that were posted to Twitter that seemed very inaccurate compared to what I was seeing. Here's the scenario that I was watching Saturday night around 11 pm Le Mans time:
I expected that the rain would be decreasing in coverage and intensity as it moved north because of my analysis of observed weather data across northern France. The projections of some models that indicated the rain would dissipate added confidence to what I expected. My forecast that I posted just before the race began had a 20% chance of rain Sunday morning, with a 40% chance in the afternoon before the end of the race.
I saw some tweets that talked about rain arriving at the circuit around midnight, just a little over one hour from the time of the above radar image. I'm not sure exactly where those projections were coming from, but I suspect it came from a weather app forecast. A simple look at the radar would have made it clear that the rain was well over an hour away. Some weather apps have an algorithm that takes current radar data and project the movement of rain, but this cannot account for the rain changing speed or direction, dissipating, or new rain areas developing. Perhaps some weather app forecast used model output that projected rain to develop over Le Mans in the next hour, but from my own analysis of the environment, that seemed highly unlikely. Then I saw a tweet that mentioned a 79% chance of rain at 4 am, and an 82% rain chance at 7 am. I was amazed at the "skill" of this forecast that could predict a 3% increase in rain chances over three hours, followed by a drop of 10% in the next three hours, followed by another rise by 9% in the following three hours! The source for this forecast was World Weather Online.
If a forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain within the next six hours, that implies a high level of confidence that it's going to happen. And in this case, it didn't. There were some light sprinkles at the circuit in the morning after sunrise, but there was no measurable rain recorded until after 2 pm, during the final hour of the race. The measurable rain arrived just when the rain chance in this forecast was falling from 83% to 55%! I don't mean to pick on WWO (they may very well be accurate most of the time, outside of this particular example), but I think this example demonstrates the problems with many weather apps.
Another example was a story in April about how the Miami Marlins, who play in a baseball stadium with a retractable roof, had a rain delay during a home game because club executives relied on weather apps for their information rather than trained meteorologists. Not all weather apps are the same. Some produce forecasts that are manually produced by a meteorologist. These are the forecasts that will most often be the most accurate and of the highest quality. Some produce a "human in the loop" forecast where a meteorologist monitors automated data from a models but modifies is based on meteorological reasoning. Some produce a "human over the loop" forecast that is simply automated data output from a model that is quality controlled by a person (probably not a meteorologist) who may edit them only if there are obvious errors. Many apps take data straight from the weather models and display them on your phone as a forecast with no human intervention at all - these forecasts are strictly automated. The quality and accuracy of the forecast is strongly dependent on how much human intervention there is in creating the forecast - the most accurate forecasts will usually be the ones that are produced by a meteorologist, while the worst accuracy and quality will most often come from the automated forecast apps. But meteorologists rely on forecast models all the time to create their forecasts, so why are automated forecasts bad (read more about the forecast process here)? Sometimes, they're not. Certain weather patterns are more accurately predicted by models than others. The problem is that automated forecast apps are captive to one particular forecast model and will change every time the model runs and produces new output (up to 4 times a day). If the computer model has a good handle on the forecast, they can be very accurate. If the model is wrong ("garbage in"), the output is wrong ("garbage out"). The farther into the future you look, the more likely you are to see wildly-varying forecasts that are just plain wrong. Most of the time, the most accurate forecast is one that accounts for the output of multiple weather models, and assimilates data from numerous sources. Trained meteorologists view output from several weather models, and improve on that output by using their personal experience, knowledge of local terrain influences, knowledge of favored regional weather patterns, knowledge of model strengths and weaknesses, analysis of recent model trends and biases, and analysis of the latest observed data.
Another problem with weather apps is how they present a false expectation of accuracy. Some apps give a forecast over two weeks in advance, with Day 15 of the forecast having nearly the same level of detail as Day 1. While the science of meteorology has advanced tremendously in the past few decades, it is beyond the state of the science to predict the temperature at a certain hour of the day two weeks in advance. The public demands pinpoint, personalized forecasts days or weeks in advance, but sometimes a meteorologist simply has to say "I don't know". Even getting the details of a storm hitting your location in the next hour can be difficult to near impossible due to the variability and complexity of the atmosphere. The detailed forecasts of some weather apps are dangerous because they create absurdly high expectations that ultimately erode overall trust in forecasts because people see “I don’t know” as some sort of proof that all forecasts are guesses or just plain wrong. The graphical presentation of the weather apps leaves no room for forecast uncertainty to be expressed, giving the false impression that the late periods of the forecast have equal confidence to the early periods of the forecast.
Anyone can post a forecast from their automated weather app, passing it off as an accurate forecast, and spread it far and wide through social media. Be wary of forecasts that are passed on second-hand through social media. Verify that the source of the forecast is from a trusted source and produced by an experienced meteorologist. I know that forecasts from the National Weather Service are entirely produced by meteorologists with local expertise and experience. At Racecast Weather, we use our experience combined with analysis of numerous data sources to produce our forecasts. In addition to our forecasts graphics, we put a lot of effort into producing posts on our website to help you better understand the weather pattern that is causing the weather, and we try to let you know when we have lower or higher confidence in our forecasts. We try to tailor our forecasts to the needs of fans, teams, and race officials, which is not possible from a weather app. You can see for yourself how accurate we are with our verification posts. We appreciate your feedback on our forecasts, both good and bad. To learn more about Scott and I, visit our About page. By Doug Schneider If you've been following our blog through this IndyCar season, you'll know that we've been keeping a record of IndyCar's weather messages to fans when thunderstorms threaten the track. These messages have been poorly worded and inconsistent, and certainly have not been promoting good weather safety actions. So far, we have documented these messages at NOLA, Barber (here and here), and GP of Indianapolis. Now we can add Saturday's race in the Belle Isle doubleheader to the list of confusing weather messages that are being sent to fans. And in my opinion, this may be the most confusing message sent this season. I was not at the Belle Isle race, so the information about the weather messages from Saturday's race was gathered through Twitter from fans who were at the track. Special thanks to Shay Hazen (@SHAYZEN), Angelica Haggert (@angelicahh89), and Rich (@HailYost98) for providing most of the details to me. Here is the sequence of events as I understand them: At approximately 5:10 pm, the red flag was thrown to stop the race due to lightning in the area, and this weather message was posted on the video screens around the track: As we have seen in previous races, the headline in this graphic indicates that severe weather is approaching. And once again, by the NWS definition, there was no real threat of severe thunderstorms at all. There was a threat of lightning, which certainly needs to be taken seriously, but lightning does not make a storm "severe". All thunderstorms, by definition, contain lightning. To make matters worse, right below the "severe weather" headline, the approaching thunderstorms are referred to as "inclement weather". Inclement is a very ambiguous word to use that can mean almost anything to anyone. To me, inclement implies just an annoying rain, with no threat of anything dangerous, such as lightning. So fans are left to wonder: are the approaching storms severe and capable of producing damaging winds, or are they producing lightning, or are they just producing heavy rain? Are these storms that require immediate action to take shelter, or can we remain in the grandstands? In reality, the storms were certainly not severe, and they were certainly more of a threat than just "inclement", since lightning was in fact a real danger. But there is nothing in this message that conveys the real danger of the approaching storms.
Also note what this message does not contain - there is no call for fans to seek shelter. Even though lightning was approaching, there is no urgency to seek shelter in this message. In fact, it seems to encourage fans to remain in their seats by stating that racing action will continue. Eyewitness reports from the track said that thunder was heard before this message was posted, yet the grandstands were not evacuated at this point. If there was lightning close enough to the track to hear thunder and stop the race, why were the grandstands not evacuated immediately? About 5 to 7 minutes after the red flag was shown to stop the race and drivers exited their cars, there was a verbal announcement over the PA system for fans to evacuate the grandstands. Estimating from eyewitness reports I received, this verbal evacuation call came 10 to 15 minutes AFTER thunder was first heard. Meanwhile, the graphic on the video screens still did not call for an evacuation, conflicting with what fans were hearing over the PA system and causing a lot of confusion. Finally, the race was called off at 5:25 pm. Rich described the weather notifications as "horrible". Angelica told me the situation was "very confusing". This sequence of events is inexcusable, and fans were put at risk because of it. There is no reason why fans should be getting conflicting messages about weather. There are so many tools available to bring weather information to series and track officials, and there are certainly meteorologists available who can help interpret this information accurately. The solution to these problems are so incredibly simple. Sending a clear, concise, and consistent message about threatening weather isn't difficult - it just needs to be made a priority by those in charge. I pray that it does not take a weather disaster before changes are made. Scott has experience in graphic design, and he is working on creating graphics that would clearly and effectively alert race fans to threatening weather. By Doug Schneider I haven't done a verification post for a while, and one reason is that the tracks I've been forecasting for have not had a reliable weather station located nearby. Fortunately, Indianapolis Motor Speedway is located just 5 miles away from Indianapolis International Airport (IND), so the conditions observed at the airport will usually be representative of what happens at the track, and the weather instruments there are reliable. For a little more information about why we post about our forecast verification and what the chart below means, read this post. I'm really happy with how this forecast worked out, considering how much uncertainty there was through the week. Temperatures were never off by more than 4 degrees with any forecast. But the real challenge I had with the forecast was the timing of rain. There were some scattered light showers around central Indiana Friday afternoon, but they never got close to the track or the airport, so having a 30%-40% PoP (probability of precipitation) in that day wasn't bad. Rain was recorded Friday night, Saturday morning, and Saturday afternoon. A chance of rain was in my initial forecast only for Sunday, but I bumped the PoP up significantly for Friday night with the Tuesday update, which worked out. While there wasn't as much rain recorded Friday night as I expected (0.25'' forecast in my Friday update post vs 0.01 recorded at the airport), rain amounts are not a factor for PoP - if the rain measures, it's a hit. In my Friday update post, I mentioned that my confidence in a dry race was 30%, and that worked out nicely. There was a 4-hour dry window between rain that hit the track around 3 pm before the race, and rain that hit after the race around 7 pm.
On a side note - if you follow this blog regularly, you'll know that Scott and I been questioning IndyCar's calls for fans to evacuate from "severe" weather - see these posts here and here and here. After the Grand Prix of Indianapolis, I am completely baffled by IndyCar's (or whoever's responsible) decision-making of when to issue the announcement to seek shelter. On Saturday around 2:30 pm, I was watching the radar with an overlay of lightning strikes, and lightning was approaching IMS. I posted on Twitter that lightning was occurring withing 10 miles of the track, and I was expecting the announcement to be made for fans to seek shelter at any moment. I was surprised to see a picture from the track of full grandstands just as the storm was about to hit. Fans at the track confirmed via Twitter that the announcement was never made. They also confirmed that there was lightning nearby (based on the lightning strike data I viewed, it was less than 5 miles away, and it was close enough for people at the track to hear thunder). Based on the timing of the announcements that were made at NOLA and Barber, which were made well in advance of the storms, I thought that certainly this was a situation that warranted a call to seek shelter from lightning. But it never happened. It appears that IndyCar has no consistent policy about when the call to seek shelter should be made. As a fan, this gives me very little confidence in IndyCar's ability to accurately warn people at the track of possible threats. I think the lesson to be learned is this - take responsibility for yourself. Don't rely on announcements at the track to know when to seek shelter. Stay updated on the latest weather conditions, know what to do when threatening weather approaches, and take action well in advance of the approaching threat, whether an official announcement is made or not. If I'm mistaken and IndyCar does have a policy of when fans should seek shelter, please leave a comment or contact me on Twitter and let me know what that policy is. |
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