There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for Saturday and Sunday as the models are flip-flopping about the chances of rain. The problem is that the weather features that could produce some rain are subtle, and the models don't handle this type of pattern well. Some show rain on Saturday, others only have rain Sunday, and others have no rain at all. So my confidence remains low. I will stick with a dry day on Saturday with temperatures rising to near 80. It is starting to look like showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as some models show an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. However, other models don't show this. With so much uncertainty, I am keeping the chance of rain low at only 30%. I need to see better model agreement before going higher. Hopefully, things will come into better focus tomorrow.
By Doug Schneider Today will be a nice day at Road America as high pressure sits over the Great Lakes. With partly cloudy skies, high temperatures will reach into the upper 70s. On Friday, the high pressure area will move east, and a low pressure system will approach from the northwest. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and evening hours.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for Saturday and Sunday as the models are flip-flopping about the chances of rain. The problem is that the weather features that could produce some rain are subtle, and the models don't handle this type of pattern well. Some show rain on Saturday, others only have rain Sunday, and others have no rain at all. So my confidence remains low. I will stick with a dry day on Saturday with temperatures rising to near 80. It is starting to look like showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as some models show an upper level disturbance approaching from the west. However, other models don't show this. With so much uncertainty, I am keeping the chance of rain low at only 30%. I need to see better model agreement before going higher. Hopefully, things will come into better focus tomorrow. By Doug Schneider I had to make some changes to the forecast today as the models are changing their tune on the rain chances for Thursday and Friday. I mentioned in my last post that most of the rain on Thursday could pass south of the area, and it looks like the models are all pointing in this direction. Therefore, I took out the mention of rain on Thursday. However, the models are now coming into agreement on another system that will approach Wisconsin from the northwest on Friday. As it stands now, the best rain chances are Friday afternoon through Friday night, but the models have not been very consistent lately, so this timing could (and probably will) change.
There is uncertainty regarding Saturday and Sunday. Some models are indicating a chance of rain both days, bringing some weak upper level disturbances across the area. This is not a pattern that is typically handled well by the models, and they differ on the location and strength of these disturbances. My forecast confidence is low, but until I see better consistency from the models, I'm sticking to my original dry forecast. Stay tuned for more updates through the week. By Doug Schneider Nice weather is expected with the first look at the forecast for the TUDOR United Sportscar Championship weekend at Road America. As teams load into the track on Thursday, there could be a chance of rain. A low pressure system is expected to pass across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois that will bring this rain chance. It is possible that the majority of the rain will stay south of Elkhart Lake, but at this early stage, I have to have at least a small chance of rain mentioned. The rest of the weekend looks dry with comfortable temperatures a low humidity as high pressure builds over the area. It should be a beautiful weekend for racing, so get out and enjoy it if you can.
I'll have forecast updates through the week on my Twitter account - @Race4caster - as well as the Racecast Weather Twitter feed and Facebook page. By Doug Schneider With this morning's forecast update, I had to add a mention of isolated showers for this afternoon. The chance of rain in the area is creeping up a little higher based on the latest data I'm seeing. That does not mean that it's going to be a wet day by any means - the chance of one of these showers hitting the track is only about 20%, which means that there's an 80% chance that there won't be any showers. If there is a shower, it will be light, with only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch expected, and it won't last for long, maybe 10 to 20 minutes. The timing window for the showers looks to be between 4 pm and 7 pm.
Saturday still looks like a nice day, but clouds will be increasing through the afternoon. The approaching system is trending a little faster, but it still looks like any rain with it will hold off until Saturday night and Sunday. By Doug Schneider No changes were needed to the forecast today as the weather still looks good for the Northeast Grand Prix at Lime Rock Park.
I do have to mention one caveat to Friday's forecast - there are some indications that there could be a few showers around the area in the afternoon. In my last post, I mentioned an upper level low pressure system that will be northeast of New England, near Nova Scotia and the Gulf of St. Lawrence, that would bring a mix of sun and clouds on Friday. Some models develop enough instability under this low to squeeze out some light rain across Connecticut. However, I'm not biting on this in my forecast as I think the showers will stay to the east, and the chances of rain at the track are too small to make it worth a mention. From what I see, the indications are stronger that the day will be dry, so I'm sticking with my original dry forecast. But I'd put the chance of seeing a shower on Friday around 10%. Saturday still looks great as high pressure builds in, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to hold off until Sunday when a cold front will approach the area. By Doug Schneider The initial weather prognosis for the Northeast Grand Prix at Lime Rock Park looks good. A low pressure system will be located near the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Friday, and the counter-clockwise flow around the low will bring a northerly flow to New England, and keep any rainfall well to the south and east. This should result in comfortable temperatures and a few afternoon clouds at Lime Rock on Friday. This low pressure area continues to track east on Saturday, and high pressure will extend over New England through the day. Temperatures will be a little warmer as a southeast flow develops and fewer clouds are expected. There is some potential for light rain on Sunday. I'll keep an eye on the trends over the next few days to see if this system speeds up, but I'm confident right now that this won't be an issue for the racing on Saturday.
By Doug Schneider Race day will begin with mostly cloudy skies at Mosport, and there is some light rain over Michigan that is moving east. However, conditions will improve by the afternoon. The light rain is expected to dissipate before reaching the area, and clouds should break up enough to allow for some sunshine through the race, warming temperatures into the upper 70s to around 80. Clouds will begin to increase again in the evening. Overall, it should be a nice day for racing at CTMP.
By Doug Schneider I wanted to get a quick update posted as there have been some changes to the forecast outlook today. Forecast confidence is increasing today as the models are in better agreement with Sunday's rain chances - or lack thereof. The high pressure ridge that will provide nice weather Friday and Saturday is looking strong enough now to delay the onset of rain. I'm confident that the TUDOR race in the early afternoon will be dry, and that the Prototypes Lites race at 3:30 will be dry as well. Any chance of rain will hold off until Sunday night or Monday. Therefore, I have taken out the chance of rain on Sunday. Friday and Saturday still look really nice, with abundant sunshine and mild temperatures. With more sunshine expected on Sunday, I've raised temperatures up to the mid 80s (upper 20s C). It should be a great weekend of racing at Mosport.
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