No significant changes to the forecast today, as the weather continues to look great for racing at Mosport this weekend. Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 80s (upper 20s C). Sunday will start off mostly sunny, but clouds will be increasing through the day. However, rain is expected to hold off until after sunset, so all the racing activity will stay dry.
By Doug Schneider No significant changes to the forecast today, as the weather continues to look great for racing at Mosport this weekend. Saturday will feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the lower 80s (upper 20s C). Sunday will start off mostly sunny, but clouds will be increasing through the day. However, rain is expected to hold off until after sunset, so all the racing activity will stay dry. By Doug Schneider I wanted to get a quick update posted as there have been some changes to the forecast outlook today. Forecast confidence is increasing today as the models are in better agreement with Sunday's rain chances - or lack thereof. The high pressure ridge that will provide nice weather Friday and Saturday is looking strong enough now to delay the onset of rain. I'm confident that the TUDOR race in the early afternoon will be dry, and that the Prototypes Lites race at 3:30 will be dry as well. Any chance of rain will hold off until Sunday night or Monday. Therefore, I have taken out the chance of rain on Sunday. Friday and Saturday still look really nice, with abundant sunshine and mild temperatures. With more sunshine expected on Sunday, I've raised temperatures up to the mid 80s (upper 20s C). It should be a great weekend of racing at Mosport.
By Scott Martin Here is the Thursday evening update for the Milwaukee Indyfest at the Milwaukee Mile. Did the models finally get their act together on the forecast? Let's see if they did.
Skies should start off and remain sunny throughout the day on Friday, even though you may have one or two fair weather cumulus clouds float through. Temperatures will be warm, reaching the lower 80s. Winds will start off light and variable, but will start to blow out of the southeast at 5-10 MPH by the time the afternoon arrives. Chance of rain is 0%. Saturday will start off partly to mostly cloudy and dry, but a shortwave trough developing off to the southwest will move northeast into the area during the day. Thermal ridging will bring low level southerly winds, which will increase instability during noon and the afternoon hours. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon hours. Daytime highs should reach the upper 70s to near 80. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 40%. The good news is most of the energy of the shortwave will stay south of the area, where the Storm Prediction Center has forecasted a marginal risk for severe weather. On Sunday, another shortwave will move through the area, which will keep the rain chances in the forecast. Once again, models are having a hard time nailing down the timing. As of now, we'll go with mostly cloudy with a chance of showers or thunderstorms throughout the day. Daytime highs should top out in the upper 70s. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 40%. Looks like the best thing to do for Saturday and Sunday is to keep a watch on radar for any rain developing. We offer a free, live radar for the area on our website. Please feel free to use it. Just click on the Indycar Radar link at the top of the page. I will be playing in a benefit concert on Saturday, so my input will be limited from 1PM through 5PM. I'll have updates for the rest of the weekend on the blog and on my Twitter feed (@RaceWx4You). By Doug Schneider A low pressure system is expected to track from northern Indiana to Pennsylvania through the day on Thursday. It looks like the majority of the rain with the system will stay south of the Toronto area, but there is still a possibility of a few light showers spreading north around the middle of the day. Some sunshine should be able to break through by the mid to late afternoon hours as the system departs. With mostly cloudy skies, temperatures on Thursday are expected to only reach the lower 70s F (lower 20s C).
Friday looks like a beautiful day with sunny skies and comfortable temperatures as high pressure builds in at the surface and through the upper levels of the atmosphere. The high pressure ridge will continue to shift slowly east across Ontario through Saturday, and temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 80s F (upper 20s C). As we get into Sunday, the forecast uncertainty rises considerably. The models agree on a low pressure system approaching from the west, but they are very different with their timing. The consensus seems to be that most of the rain will come Sunday night, but a few are quicker to bring the rain in. I'm going to trend the forecast toward the slower timing by lowering the chance of rain slightly, and moving the rain chance into the afternoon. With the expected slower arrival of the rain chances, I've raised Sunday's high temperature into the lower 80s F (upper 20s C). Our live radar feed will be available in the TUSC Radar link at the top of the page, and I'll have updates posted on my Twitter account @Race4caster. By Scott Martin Uncertainty is still the name of the game for this weekend's events at the Milwaukee Mile for the Indycar and Indy Lights Series. Models are having a hard time coming into agreement about rainfall (location and timing) and the daytime high temperatures. I'll share with you what I've seen, so here we go.
Friday should start off partly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60s. Rain and thunderstorm chances will seem to be set for later in the afternoon to evening hours due to an advancing surface warm front with accompanying 500mb shortwave trough that is expected to form and move across the area. Daytime highs will reach the mid 70s, with winds from the south-southeast at 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is at 20%. Saturday will start off partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or thunderstorms possible, with morning temperatures in the upper 60s. The rest of the day will be partly cloudy. with slight chance of rain or thunderstorms lingering throughout the day. Daytime highs will reach the lower 80s, with winds from the south at 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 30%. On Sunday, the mid-level flow will shift from the northwest as a shortwave ridge axis approaches and moves through the area. Along this axis, several shortwave troughs will slide through the area keeping rain chances in the forecast. What is so hard is forecasting where the axis will be at a certain time this far out, and when and how many troughs will slide through the area. So I'm going with partly cloudy skies throughout the day with slight chance of rain or thunderstorms. Daytime highs should reach the lower 80s, with winds from the southeast at 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is at 30%. Radar is up and running on our site, just click on the Indycar Radar link to view. I'll have updates on my Twitter feed (@RaceWx4You) and I'll update our website each day leading up to the races. If you haven't noticed, we have a new web address. You can now find us at www.racecastweather.com. By Scott Martin Well after a short vacation break, its back at this game called Weather Forecasting. I have the first forecast for this weekend's Indycar and Indy Lights Series events at the Milwaukee Mile. I believe that most of the weekend should be relatively dry with only slight chances of rain for each day except Sunday. A few shortwaves could move through the area at various times throughout the weekend, and the placement and timing of these are not set in stone.
Saturday should be an overall nice day with warm temperatures, as highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 20%. Winds will be out of the SW at 5-10 MPH. Sunday will once again feature warm temperatures with partly cloudy skies. A chance for showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast. As of timing and placement of these, its too early in the game to exactly say when and where they will develop. Highs are expected to reach the mid 80s. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain is 40%. Hopefully within the next couple of days, I should be able to get a better idea on the rain chances for Sunday. Radar will be up and running for the Milwaukee Mile before the event weekend. By Doug Schneider A cold front will push through the Toronto area Tuesday evening, which will stall across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A weak low pressure area is expected to track along the front, and this may bring some light showers back to the north toward CTMP on Thursday. The majority of rain will likely stay south of the track, so I only have a 20% chance of rain for Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure will provide nice weather for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected, and temperatures will reach to near 80 F (27 C for our Canadian friends) each day. The ridge weakens on Sunday, and this will allow an upper level disturbance to cross the area. Timing is uncertain at this time so I'm not confident enough to be too specific on that yet, but the afternoon and evening hours appear to have the better rain chances than the morning. One models (GFS) shows most of the rain staying south and west of the track, while another (ECMWF) is slower with the rain, bringing it in Sunday night. I'll start the forecast off with a 40% chance of rain for Sunday. For our Canadian followers, here's the forecast graphic in Celsius: By Doug Schneider Some clouds and light fog will start the day at Brainerd International Raceway. The clouds should decrease somewhat later in the morning, which should allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s. It will also become breezy, with south winds around 15 mph by early afternoon. Some wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph may be possible as well. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening. My best estimate of the time of arrival of storms is between 3 pm and 5 pm, but it is possible that they could arrive as early as 2 pm. Of course, whether they arrive at 2 pm or 3 pm makes all the difference for a wet race or a dry race. I'm afraid I can't pin it down that precisely, so you'll have to keep an eye on the radar as watch how things develop this afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over Brainerd today, with a 15% chance of damaging winds and large hail. All storms will have frequent lightning, so be sure to stay weather aware and know where you would go for shelter when you hear a thunderstorm approaching. |
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