By Doug Schneider

There's some good news and bad news with this forecast update for IMSA weekend at Watkins Glen. The good news is that the chance of rain on Sunday has lowered, due to the slower timing of an approaching front and upper level trough. The bad news is that Saturday's rain chance is rising, due to a weak disturbance ahead of the main trough. 

Thursday and Friday continue to look great for the practice sessions, with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures and humidity as high pressure extends across the region. 

The humidity will get noticeably higher on Saturday as the southerly flow of warm, moist air increases over the Finger Lakes region. The higher humidity, along with a weak upper level disturbance that will move across the area, will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, mainly in the afternoon. There could be a potential for brief, heavy downpours. The exact timing is uncertain at this time, but the MPC race between 2:35 and 6:35 pm could be impacted.

There is some model disagreement regarding the timing of rain chances on Sunday. In my previous forecast, I mentioned that this was a slow-moving system. Most of the models have shown a slower system over the past couple days, which means that the main area of rain with the system could hold off until Sunday night or Monday. Still, with plenty of moist air in place and the approaching trough, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the WeatherTech Championship race. Like Saturday, there could be a heavy downpour, but I think it would be short-lived. Timing remains uncertain, but the afternoon will be favored for showers. 

By Doug Schneider

IMSA weekend at Watkins Glen will start off with beautiful weather, but it will take a turn for the worse as the weekend progresses. 

Through the middle portion of the week, a large high pressure system will move across the Mid-Atlantic region, and be off the East Coast by Thursday. This will produce a southerly wind across the Finger Lakes region, providing warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday.

On Saturday, the high pressure will lose its grip on New York and a low pressure system will track northeast across the Great Lakes, southern Ontario, and into Quebec. A cold front will trail behind this system and slowly creep into western New York late on Saturday. During the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms may pop up in the area around the track. These will be hit-and-miss showers that could avoid the track entirely, so I only have a 30% chance of rain in for Saturday afternoon. 

The cold front will make slow eastward progress on Saturday night, putting it close to the Finger Lakes on Sunday. With the front nearby and deep moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect Sunday's action. It's too soon to tell how significant the impacts will be, because that depends on how much rain falls and how heavy it will come down. That should come into better focus over the next few days. For now, I am confident that there will be rain at some point during the day, and there could be a potential for some heavy rain.. Check back through the week for updates.

By: Harris Cooley

After an extremely exciting weekend in France, we quickly head to the Red Bull Ring for the Austrian GP. Unfortunately, it is shaping up to be a wet weekend with rain chances likely for the whole weekend. They will likely be scattered, but any moisture on the track is enough to alter the cars' operations. Wind speeds will be down, but the temperatures will be cool as it is so these drivers could have a real issue finding grip out there if it ends up raining.

Northwesterly winds along with the natural topography of the area are the culprit behind this nasty forecast. I will continue to monitor this closely and keep you all updated accordingly. A metric graphic is displayed below...

When I did my first graphic for Road America on Monday morning, it looked like it would be a mainly dry weekend at the track. Now, both of the trusty long range models have a surface low that will move through the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes Region that will bring the potential for showers and some thunder to the Elkhart Lake area on Sunday.

For now, Thursday will be a mainly dry day with only a very small chance of a shower during the afternoon and early evening hours, with rain chances picking up after on-track activity has concluded for the day. Rain will be likely during the late-night hours on Thursday night and will continue through the pre-dawn hours on Friday. While much of the activity will have ended by the time the gates open on Friday morning, we'll continue to have a very small chance of a stray shower or two through the afternoon hours. The good news is that rain chances during on-track times on both days will only be 20%.

While Saturday will be a near-perfect day for races at "America's National Park of Speed," Sunday will be an "iffy" day weather-wise as a surface low will be approaching the area. The European forecast model has shower and storm activity moving into the area during the mid to late afternoon hours, while the GFS model has the activity arriving earlier during the late morning hours. To be on the safe side, I went with the shower and thunderstorm potential to start during the late morning hours and through the remainder of the day. As long as there is no lightning close to the track, that means we may have to see the world's greatest drivers try to conquer the course in the wet. Rain chances for now is set at 40%. We can get a better idea on the rainfall potential once the higher-resolution models come into view by Friday morning.

By: Harris Cooley

We are in for a beautiful but windy weekend at the Paul Ricard this weekend. It's going to be hot and humid being right on the coast along with increasingly strong wind gusts for the afternoons. An increased Low pressure gradient in NW France will be dipping down south and increasing wind speeds in conjunction with a much smaller Low circulation east of the area in the Mediterranean Sea. 

Our main areas of concern come with the increased wind gusts as this could cause some grip issues around the track. Especially with how close the competition is amongst the teams and drivers, we will see these teams giving it their all out on the track. Other than the wind, it should be a clear weekend with hot track temps so everything should be in order for a great race weekend! I will continue to monitor the severity of these wind gusts and Low pressures in the area so stay tuned. A metric graphic is displayed below.

By: Stephen McCoy

We didn't quite see the showers that might've been expected today, largely due to approaching cold front beginning to break up as it reached the Great Lakes, but we'll still see an area of high pressure beginning to move in on Sunday. Surface winds will shift towards the north/northeast with somewhat breezy conditions. Cloud cover will be in the low-to-mid levels during the morning, clearing around mid-day, and slightly increasing through the afternoon. A few isolated showers may be possible during the morning, but overall conditions should have minimal impact for the on-track sessions.

By: Stephen McCoy

The forecast from Monday remains mostly the same, with a bit more clarity in conditions. Temperatures will remain mostly stable through the weekend, in the upper 60's for lows and in the mid 80's for highs. Scattered showers may develop Friday afternoon, though Saturday's chances look more likely as a cold front moves through the region; these showers may last into Sunday morning, but no precipitation is expected afterwards.

On Friday, a surface high pressure system will be centered over northern Canada, causing winds in western Michigan from the east/northeast through the day. A low pressure system to the south will result in partly cloudy conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere during the morning, with lower clouds building in from the north/northwest in the afternoon. Scattered showers may develop in central Michigan during the afternoon and could reach Detroit thanks to mid-level winds from the northwest.

On Saturday, a cold front will approach the region from the west as a surface low pressure system tracks northeastward from the northern Great Plains into Canada. Ahead of the front, winds will shift to the south/southwest, bringing increased moisture to the region. As a result, scattered showers and/or thunderstorms may develop, especially in the late afternoon to evening. Much like on Friday, partly cloudy conditions will be expected in the morning, with lower cloud cover building in the afternoon, now due to the approaching front.

After the frontal passage overnight Saturday into Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, with increased wind speeds and gusty conditions expected. Clouds over the region will begin clearing, with mostly sunny to full clear skies anticipated for much of the day. A slight chance for isolated showers is present during the morning, still associated with the front, but otherwise, no precipitation is expected.

By: Stephen McCoy

Near-summertime conditions will be present for this weekend's races at Belle Isle. We'll see consistent temperatures all three days with lows in upper 60's and highs in the low-to-mid 80's; chances for isolated to scattered showers will also persist through the weekend.

Friday's conditions are expected to begin mostly cloudy, mainly in the upper levels, due to a low pressure system to the southeast. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure will be centered to the north, causing surface winds from the east/northeast. As a result, slightly cooler temperatures will move in, with the cooler air undercutting the already-present warm air. This may allow for the development of showers and/or thunderstorms in the region, especially as temperatures reach their highest in the afternoon. As the aforementioned low moves eastward, cloud cover will begin diminishing.

An approaching cold front from the west will pass through the region Saturday in the evening to overnight. Beforehand, winds will be largely from the south/southeast with temperatures mostly consistent with those on Friday. The front will bring with it a slight chance for isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms in the late afternoon to evening. For Sunday, temperatures are expected to continue from earlier in the weekend with winds from the west to northwest; some stronger gusts may be possible, especially in the afternoon. With the front having passed over, conditions will be partly cloudy to mostly clear through much of the day.