There hasn't been much change to the expected weather pattern later this week at Sebring. I only made some changes to the morning low temperatures, which are looking colder than before. It will be unusually cold for Sebring each morning, as the normal low temperature this time of year is around 55 degrees. With a dry air mass and low relative humidity, temperatures will warm quickly through the day, and the high on race day will be around 80. By the end of the race, the temperature will be in the upper 60s.
By Doug Schneider
There hasn't been much change to the expected weather pattern later this week at Sebring. I only made some changes to the morning low temperatures, which are looking colder than before. It will be unusually cold for Sebring each morning, as the normal low temperature this time of year is around 55 degrees. With a dry air mass and low relative humidity, temperatures will warm quickly through the day, and the high on race day will be around 80. By the end of the race, the temperature will be in the upper 60s. By Doug Schneider - @Race4caster Is it just me, or does the break between Daytona and Sebring seem longer than the offseason? Finally, it's time for the IMSA season to get back underway. And I don't think the weather can possibly get any better than what I'm expecting this weekend at Sebring.
Early this week, a cold front will pass through the state of Florida, and a large high pressure system will build in from the north through the rest of the week. This will result in dry conditions (no rain and low humidity), lots of sunshine, and temperatures cooler than normal. Normal temperatures for Sebring in mid-March are a low in the mid 50s and a high around 80. Temperatures for the start of the event will be around 10 degrees below normal. As the center of the high pressure moves off the east coast of Florida by race day, temperatures will get warmer, closer to normal, and there may be a slight increase in clouds and humidity. But likely not enough for any chance of rain. There is good model agreement on this pattern, so I'm pretty confident that this forecast will hold up through the week, and probably won't have significant changes as we get closer to the race. I plan on having the next update posted on Tuesday. By Scott Martin Well, even with the light rain and sprinkles that fell on the streets of St. Petersburg that caused some great excitement in Indycar qualifying and during the Pirelli World Challenge GTS/GTS-A race, totals didn't amount to a qualified measurable amount as of 7:00 PM tonight.
The real good news for Sunday is that the severe threat will hold off until after all track activities are over for the day, and the actual activity throughout the day will be scattered in nature. So, it will not rain all day long, but a passing shower or thunderstorm will be possible at any point. The severe threat that was defined in the area on Friday evening has now been move northward. Weak buoyancy and lapse rates will limit the threat over the area. I wouldn't be surprised in the threat area is shifted a little farther north when the new outlook comes out. There will be enough instability that lightning will be possible, but only a very small chance. You can expect mostly cloudy skies throughout the day with a chance of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds will start off out of the southeast during the morning but will shift out of the southwest at 6-10 MPH by the afternoon. Temperatures will start off in the mid-60s at 7 AM, but will rise to the mid-70s for the afternoon high. Rainfall amounts throughout the day will be in the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. You may even see a few breaks in the clouds letting some sun shine on the layout. At this point, I am really scratching my head on the chance of rain... I want to be on the safe side and go 50%, but I believe the chance may actually be less... so I'll go with 40%. If any thunderstorms approach the area, please listen to the PA and obey the instructions that they pop up on the big screens. Indycar does a great job in warning spectators of impending weather, so trust them this time as well. Radar is up and running on our site. Have a great evening. By Scott Martin SATURDAY Saturday will start off really nice in St. Petersburg, but clouds will be on the increase and a few showers are possible during the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Temperatures will start off in the upper 50s at 7 AM but will warm nicely into the lower 70s by early afternoon. It looks at this point that any chances for shower activity will start after the 2 PM hour and will increase after the on-track activity has finished for the day. The chance for any rain during the afternoon hours will be around 20%, and there is a very small chance of thunder as well. I do not believe at this point that any shower that passes over St. Pete will last that long, and amounts will be 0.01 inches or less. Winds will be out of the southeast to the south at 7-10 MPH. SUNDAY
The good news is that it will not rain all day long, but there will be some periods of rain and thunder. The bad news is that there is the possibility for stronger storms during the afternoon and early evening hours across Central Florida, including St. Petersburg. The latest solution from the hi-res NAM is showing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving across Central Florida throughout the day, but the coverage on this run is coming in a lot less than the previous runs. I still believe there will be a chance of rain or thunderstorms at any point throughout the day on Sunday, so I've backed the rain chances down to 50%. Now, with that being said, there will be plenty of instability to work with along with a decent amount of helicity for any updrafts to start turning. Significant tornado parameters are topping out over 1.2 in the area, and that means that conditions will exist for an isolated tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has all of Central Florida in a Marginal Risk (level 1) for severe storms throughout the day on Sunday At this point, it looks like the best chance for stronger to severe storms will be during the late morning hours to after track activity ends for the day. The Storm Prediction Center did say in their latest Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook that upgrading to a Slight Risk (level 2) for severe storms may be warranted if the forecast confidence increases with this scenario. Winds will be gusty at times, averaging 7-14 MPH with gusts up to 20 MPH possible. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s after starting off in the mid-60s at 7 AM. Rainfall amounts throughout the day will probably end up around 1/4-inch or less. PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE... Lightning looks to be possible throughout the entire day, with it more likely throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Listen to the PA to see where you would need to go if a thunderstorm approaches. I'll have updates throughout the weekend, especially on Sunday. Radar is up and running on the site and on the Pirelli World Challenge website and just click on the link for weather. By Scott Martin Friday Friday continues to look nearly picture perfect for a late Winter's day in St. Petersburg. After starting off very cool with temperatures around 50 degrees at 7 AM, it will warm nicely throughout the morning and early afternoon hours, topping out in the upper 60s. Winds out of the northeast at 4-11 MPH will make those temperatures feel a little cooler, so a light jacket or long sleeve might be needed. Saturday Warm air advection starts kicking in as the flow shifts to out of the southeast due to low pressure that will be building in over the northern parts of Alabama and the southern parts of Tennessee. This will start to bring moisture into the area during the day on Saturday, and a very slight risk for a passing shower is possible during the early afternoon hours, and becoming more likely as we reach the end of the afternoon hours and move into the evening. Chance of rain will start off at 20% for the afternoon, but will increase after the on-track activity has completed for the day. We may have a rumble or two of thunder, but is unlikely at this time. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s, after starting off in the mid-50s at 7 AM. Winds will be a little higher on average out of the southeast at 7-11 MPH. Sunday While Sunday looks to be an overall wet day, I do believe that it will not be an all-day rain event. The only problem is that models continue to have scattered shower activity nearby for much of the day, especially for the late morning through the late afternoon hours. There is a decent chance that a good part of the morning will be dry, but I can't rule out a passing shower. Unfortunately, those showers will become more likely as the center of low pressure over north Alabama continues to move eastward dropping more activity into Florida. Rain could be heavy at some point, and we may have to watch out for a little bit of lightning as there will be enough instability present. Also, winds will become quite breezy at times as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. With the rain being scattered in nature, I'm putting the chance at 60%, but that will more than likely go up as we get closer to Sunday. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and winds will be out of the southwest at 13-18 MPH, with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.
By Scott Martin Other than a few rogue clouds floating overhead, and 7AM temperatures starting off in the lower 50s, Friday will almost be a picture-perfect day for on-track activities. Skies will stay mostly sunny throughout the day and afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s. Winds will be out of the north-northeast at 5-10 MPH, which may make those temperatures feel a degree or two cooler, so long sleeves may be necessary for the fans. Shades and hats will definitely be needed throughout the day... and don't forget the sunscreen.
Saturday will start off a little cool at 7AM, with temperatures in the mid-50s, but the remainder of the day will be absolutely nice. Due to an approaching system, winds will have shifted and will be out of the southeast at 5-9 MPH throughout the day, and this will bring some warmer temperatures to the area. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-70s underneath a mostly sunny sky. The only downer is that the latest run of the NAM is showing some scattered shower activity trying to sneak in during the latter part of the afternoon and early evening hours, so I have included a very small chance of rain somewhere after 3PM. I'm not too confident about those showers, so I'm only making the percentage at 10%. The main bulk of the rain should hold off until after the on-track activities are completed. The latest model runs are looking a little better for Sunday, but rain is still likely at anytime throughout the day. The very good news is that the amounts expected for the city has been reduced greatly by the latest solutions of the ECMWF and GFS models, both showing just over 1/4-inch of rainfall for the day. The bad news is that there is enough instability present that a few rumbles of thunder are possible. It's not going to rain all day in St. Petersburg, but with these solutions on the latest update, rain is possible at any time throughout the day. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s after starting off in the mid-60s at 7AM. Chance of rain is at 60% as of now, but could definitely change by my next update tomorrow. Wind will be a factor as well, as winds will be averaging 10-16 MPH out of the southwest, with gusts up to 23 MPH possible. By Scott Martin Friday's weather in St. Petersburg will be really nice for getting out on the track, but conditions will be different from what you will experience on Saturday and Sunday. After starting off really cool in the lower 50s at 7AM, temperatures will climb nicely throughout the morning and early afternoon hours under mainly clear skies. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s, around 69 degrees. Winds will be mainly out of the north at 5-10 MPH. Saturday's weather will actually be nicer, with warmer temperatures and a cloud or two to offer some shade at times. A center of low pressure will be entering the southeastern U.S., causing winds to be out of the southeast at 8-12 MPH throughout the day. The good news is that it looks like nearly all of the rainfall will hold off until well after the track activity is over for the day, but I cannot rule out a very small chance of a stray shower moving through at some point during the afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will end up in the upper 70s, around 77 degrees, after starting off in the upper 50s at 7AM. Rain is expected to move in during the late night hours. Sunday will be wet at times, but the exact timing of the heavier activity is questionable at this point. The GFS model is showing the heaviest activity moving through the area between 6AM-12PM, with rain moving out of the area soon after. The ECMWF keeps rainfall very light and scattered in nature throughout the same time frame, but brings in the heavier precipitation between 12PM-6PM. The good news, at this point, lightning does not appear to be likely, but rainfall could be heavy at times. The ECMWF is painting just over 0.75 inches of rain on Sunday, while the GFS shows over 2 inches.
It is too early to know for sure what exactly will happen, but I'll have a better idea as we get closer to the weekend. My official forecast at this point will be cloudy skies with rain likely at anytime throughout the day. Rainfall could be heavy at times, and winds will be out of the southwest at 12-18 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Afternoon highs may reach 80 degrees, but that is questionable depending on when the main bulk of the rain arrives in the area and how strong the southwesterly flow over the area is. 7AM temperatures will be in the upper 60s, around 68 degrees. Rain chance is set at 80%, but that could be bumped in any direction when the forecast changes. Needless to say, rain tires (or tyres) will be likely on Sunday, but can we keep the rain from getting too heavy to prevent the cars from racing. I'll have your forecast updates throughout the week, and radar will be up and running on Friday. Have a great day and a great week! By Scott Martin. If you don't mind a little breeze and some cooler temperatures to start off the day, Raceday at Sebring International Raceway for the opening round of the 2018 Trans Am Series Presented by Pirelli season will be nearly perfect. Nice temperatures for this time of the year will be really nice for the teams and drivers, and will keep the fans comfortable... just remember to grab the hats, shades, and sunscreen up. Here is the breakdown for the day...
At 8:00 AM, the temperature will be around 50 degrees, but there will be a wind chill factor of around 45 degrees, so jacket will probably be needed for an hour or two. The good news is that temperatures will climb nicely throughout the day, reaching the lower 70s for the daytime high. Temperatures for the start to the TA/TA3/TA4 race at 11:00 AM will be around 68 degrees, and wind will be breezy, averaging around mainly out of the north to north-northeast at 8-16 MPH. By the time the checkers fall on this race, temperatures will have climbed to around 71 degrees. By the time the green flag is ready to fall for the TA2 at 3:00 PM, temps will be at their warmest, around 73 degrees. Winds will continue to be out of the north to north-northeast at 8-16 MPH, but no worries about rain as skies will be absolutely clear. The temperatures will only fall about 3 degrees to around 70 for the checkered flag, and will be in the mid to upper 60s for the next hour or so after the event. We want to thank Lux Performance for becoming our forecast partners for the Trans Am Series Presented by Pirelli for the 2018 season. Be sure to stop by their site at LuxPerformance.com and check out the latest on what they have going on. If you would like to be a partner with Racecast Weather, please feel free to contact us through our contact page on our site. We have very affordable plans no matter what the size of your budget. |
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